As I have written and said for a while now, the 2012 elections will not even be close. Obama will lose badly, the Senate goes republican, and the House remains in republican hands. There are an ever increasing number of reasons why. Most of them are backfires from the Obama campaign. You really have to wonder how these jokers got elected in the first place.
Don’t Believe the Polls
The methodology behind most of these polls are slanted heavily in favor of Obama. Because of the so called enthusiasm gap, each years numbers are different than the last one. For instance, in 2008, democratic voters were motivated much more than republicans and what followed was nearly a clean sweep. In 2009,2010,and 2011, republicans were by far much more motivated to vote. Rasmussen is very good at this. They start with about 35% democrat and 35% republican and 30% independent. Then they adjust those results according to the enthusiasm gap. Rasmussen also counts only likely voters. Most other polls don’t do that until later in the year. Historically, republicans are more reliable voters, so when you count registered voters, the results of the polls slant toward the liberals.
Many polls from liberal outlets or democratic polls are using the numbers from the 2008 election. Obviously, Obama is weaker among blacks, Hispanics, the young, stay at home moms, Jews, Catholics, working moms, sane human beings and his immediate family. In fact, the only two groups expected to vote for him in even bigger numbers than in 2008 are illegal aliens (not guest workers or undocumented aliens) and the dead. Well, you have to realize the population of the dead has risen dramatically since 2008. Also the enthusiasm gap is now on the other foot. many people who favor Obama will simply stay home, especially in the case of bad weather, while those opposed to Obama will swim a crocodile filled lake to vote Romney.
The Economy and Jobs
Despite all the side issues Obama and his minions in the press throw out there, what will motivate voters this year will be the economy and as an extension of that, jobs. Despite all of his rhetoric (who can forget “I am going to focus on jobs like a laser beam.”?)and the nonsense issues (which incidentally keep blowing up in Obama’s face) that the WaPo and other papers try to blur the race with , they seem to be having a bad effect on the Obama campaign. Gallup recently found that women are moving towards Romney. This is both unexpected and unwelcome to Obama. Women were thought to be heavily in his corner. The reason was explained by the fact that the economy was rated as the worst problem by 79% of the polled voters.
Obama and the Press Missteps
So many of the strategies devised by liberals in the White House and in the press keep have boomeranged back at them. First there was the story of Romney’s placing his dog on the roof of the car even though it was a customized for his comfort and with a window instead of metal, so his dog could see out. Shortly after that story broke, it was revealed that in the third grade, Obama’s teacher scolded him for refusing to release his homework to her. Obama explained “Well, my dog ate my homework. Then I ate my dog.”
Next up was the War on Women, followed closely by Hilary Rosen (Jay Carney personally knows 3 Hilary Rosens) with her war with stay at home moms. The Obama WH tried to claim neither they nor the DNC had Rosen on the payroll. Unfortunately for Obama it was right there in their filings. She trained Debbie Wasserman Schultz on how to be less ditzy. That explains that. Then my personal favorite, the commercial that showed how heartless Romney was when he laid off all the workers at GST Steel. The only problem was that Romney left Bain in 1999 and GST happened in 2001, while Romney was busy saving the Olympics. So who was in charge? Jonathon Lavine, a six figure bundler for the Obama campaign.
No Coat Tails
Because of the lack of support for Obama, he will have no coattails and in all likelihood, will hurt the lower end of the ticket. The Senate is more likely to change hands than not. The only republican seat that is extremely vulnerable is Maine and it was never really republican anyway. The democrats are vulnerable in Ohio, Conneticut (If Shays gets the nomination), Virginia, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Florida, Missouri, Montana, and Wisconsin. Republicans would only need 4 of those 10 to win control of the senate. Montana, North Dakota, and Nebraska are shoo ins. That means republicans need to pick up 1 out of 7 to win control. In the house democrats need to pick up 25 seats. But there are 11 extremely vulnerable democratic seats , which would mean democrats would need to pick up 36 seats. I think they gain 3 or 4 at most and could lose a net of 2.
This is fertile ground for Romney. Undecideds usually break for the challenger by 2/3s. The only recent exception was Bush 43. With about a 9% undecided rate, that gives Romney a net 3 points.
Don’t listen to the Lame Stream Press. Unless something major happens, this race is over and republicans continue their winning streak. We have seen the enemy and they is liberals. (Apologies to Pogo)